Saturday, August 05, 2006

What Kind of Ceasefire

What kind a ceasefire?
"A Fictive Dialogue"

Israeli: We want a ceasefire if Hezbollah wants one; and we want them to stop attacking Israel, to stop launching rockets; and to withdraw their weapons beyond a buffer zone - what you call a DMZ!

Lebanese: We want an absolute cessation of hostilities now; with Israel leaving our country. Then we will continue the UN 1559 process and integrate the Lebanese Hezbollah.

Hezbollah: Well, remember that I am Lebanese .. we want Israel to ceasefire and commit the hostage issue to negotiation. We only took the Israeli soldiers hostages to help Palestine obtain leverage for another prisoner swap. Especially the women and children in Palestinan camps called Israel Prisons. That was done in 2004 though the help of the German government.

High-placed American: We want a ceasefire that stops hostilities; and includes a transfer of military power in Southern Lebanon to a Multi-National force. However Hezbollah must agree to halt attacking; and withdraw weapons from Southern Lebanon.

Lebanese: Well can't that all wait ? People are getting killed - especiallty Lebanese. Because of that Hezbollah-Lebanese feel compelled to retaliate --to defend themselves. Israel runs rampant like a bull in a china shop.

European & Japanese: We agree with the Lebanese --we want the hostilities stopped to save lives immediately.

UN Person: We wanted an immediate ceasefire in place with a withdrawal of Israeli forces and a commitment against Hezbollah raids; and a return of the prisoners.

Hezbollah & Lebanese: The prisoner issue can be sided -- they were combat or military personnel --our people who captured them are commandos, not terrorists. Lebanon-Hezbollah embarassed the tough Israelis with a cross-border raid. We want a prisoner exchange - a swap,; and particularly, a release of elderly, women and children held by Israel. At least our prisoners now are being treated according to the Geneva Convention. The Red Cross has seen them, or had verification of them.

American: Well Sect'y of State Rice & President Bush want a ceasefire after Israeli defense interests are secured -- they thought you'd accede to Israel's right of defense; and they'll then turn over that occupied territory to the UN MNF.

Lebanese - European & Japanese: We all want a full armistice -- a cessation of hostilities now. To save civilian lives.

High-placed Israeli: While we stop shooting you'll attack us! If we withdraw you'll attack us!

High placed Lebanese: After a ceasefire following your Begun destruction in the '80's -- Israel years later declared a unilateral ceasefire and withdrawal under a new Prime Minister Barek. There was no Israeli slaughter. We hoped more peace would follow; after we had wound up the civil war; then we had the Syrian presence to address. What's wrong with that kind of withdrawal now? Just declare or join a ceasefire, and retreat and go home. All else will await international negotiations. We don't fire on flags of truce. Israel does that. What the hell good is a partial aerial ceasefire when you advance your tanks? Do you want our bent-over asses? It has to be mutual.

American: Well you've been going at it for nearly a month.

Others: Yes you do note these things don't you.

American What?

Others: Nothing.

American: We want a ceasefire -- but Israel wants to defend itself. We thought the threat was Hezbollah.

Lebanese: Are you crazy? Israel is trigger happy. You put those weapons in their hands! Under legal causation theory you're responsible and they are responsible for over-reaction.
A border skirmish begetting a war in the 21st century? For God sakes! Most of your killings have been civilians. No wonder some Americans liken them the Israelis to the New York police movie -- "Fort Apache - the Bronx".

UN, Europe, France, Britain, Japan, & Lebanon: How about an immediate ceasefire? All hostilities halt by command order of each country. The UN commits politically to consider an optional place-holding and peace keeping force. Israel is not rewarded with more territory by war; nor for its war. Lebanon has its damages, and Hezbollah, by Lebanese government, must rein itself in and practice politics. Then you, Israel, put Barek back in power - or a similar Israeli Prime Minister; and Israel under a ceasefire just pulls back across the Lebanese border as she did before the UN 1559 resolution.

Israeli & American: And the war -- it would flame up again.

Lebanese & UN & France & Britain: No, you enforce the ceasefire!!! Don't you conceive of them? No shooting !!

Israeli citizen: I get the point .. our lives our out of risk too by a true ceasefire -- except our neanderthals who think everyone is going to kill us! The rockets weren't a material problem until the war started. No, and now, despite the Israeli military and invasion, and political lies in the Knesset, they are everywhere in Israel -- 50 miles into the country! What imbeciles If I were Lebanese or Hezbollah, I'd shoot anything I could.

American: A ceasefire can end the war, but Israel wants to gain.

Lebanese: Israel acted irresponsibly and recklessly and criminally in response. Their damage to Lebanon is tremendous and immoral. We, and I hope the world, cannot acquiesce to Gaza North. What is in your consciences? Our lives all have the same worth. Drop this imbecilic eye for eye and ten of yours for one of ours nonsense. If Lebanon had been as armed as Israel, both societies would be ruined.

UN, France, Briton, European, Lebanese & others: A simple lifesaving ceasefire in place -- enforced. Israel can go home. If Lebanon wants a stronger buffer force, and Israel is interested in one, the UN will negotiate it. But for peace sake a halt now to hostilites. Israel cannot win or finish its mission. Two societies will both bleed.

Israel & a High-placed American: Israel needs to defend itself.

Eisenhower-style American: Are you crazy? Halt Israel and force a ceasefire to save lives. Americans don't do what Israel or you are doing now.

Others - especially Lebanon: Whatever occurs, a full government and press investigation will detail every airstrike, every target, every killing in Lebanon and assess Israel's defensive military targeting. It appears more like murder. No country may pretext war or pretext terrorists, and by blank check or Star Chamber issue warrants and begin murdering with massive military weapons today.

Lebanese: Just today, for the first time as if just recalled with an Israeli prompting, to inflame Americans, you reminded that Hezbollah killed those US Marines in Beirut in 1982 - twenty-four years ago. That was a different war -- it is regretted, and a different Hezbollah. They have a miitary faction, and a political faction .. like the Sein Fein and IRA some Americans romanticize over. Likud is the successor political party of Irgun - the Israeli terrorist group for nationalism against the British. They blew up half the Jerusalem King David Hotel to kill British remember? That was terrorism. We'll accept objective assessments of true terrorism that must be addressed. Israel sabotaged UN 1559. A newer peaceful politically participating Hezbollah exists .. socially determined and economically minded. They do business. Israel's act is almost spiteful as if proven wrong .. especially in the Lebanese options for peace after Syria's withdrawl, and President Harriri's assassination a year ago. The time was well spent. Lebanon knows what civil war is. Israel has, or had the diplomacy to seek third parties and to negotiate and restrain herself - to do something other than a malicious destructive war. People other than Israelis are not animals. Citizen of Israel -- throw out your government and make peace. And don't re-elect another peace as war voter deception like Likud 2.

Another Lebanese: As I speak, American press polls are reporting that nearly 50% of Americans disagree with Bush and Rice now; and that over 50% of Americans believe Israel's response against Lebanon is wrong and too damaging, too excessive. That is hope.

High-Placed American: Many Americans have Lebanese ancestry. We have good relations, we will help Lebanon with peace and re-building and investment. We've have already given $30 million in humanitarian aid since the war started.

Lebanese: Stop the war America; you arm and fund proxies like the old Soviets.
Become a great power again.

Ceasefire.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

1559 EXEUNT PERSONAE

NY Times -- Israeli Policies: George Bush Sr. vs George Bush Jr.

YAHOO Search -same NY Times article

As this post is written, CNN reports that Britain may have her Ceasefire Resolution readied for tomorrow (08-03-06) CNN and that the UN Security Council may consider it.

Good -- and not too late -- its conditions are unknown.

As for the Title here -- UN resolution 1559 ... concluded that with UN and other international help, Lebanon would resolve herself and integrate Hezbollah into her national politics; including acceptable disarmament. Israel has sabotaged this, and also with the US and Britain's acquiesced delay, behaved destructively as if the Resolution they endorsed were to be otherwise vetoed.

UN 1559 mooted the issue of Hezbollah as an alien party in Lebanon. It is Lebanese. Israel is an alien party, and her endorsement of 1559 is unknown and unlikely.

Further the Middle East is not and will not be the Versailles Conference redissembling the Ottoman Empire; and it is not Potsdam's European Postwar cartography options.

UN 1559 was workable, and positive - to Syria's responsible options, Lebanon's options, and opting in or out to Israel's options. Hezbollah would be addressed regionally, and by Lebanon as a constituent part.

Israel will not evict nor exile any more indigenous. Irael cannot unilaterally ke war without rectification of her damage; Israel will not win its war. Israel can adn will participate in peace.

But CEASEFIRE immediate and humane .. must restore the UN processes. Another method than martial violence will address Israel's security and Israel's rocket attacks; and Israel's severe & wrong distreatment of occupied persons.

The links above reference this blog's readers to differences in policy & styles pertinent to Israel, in today's NY Times. Mr. Bush Jr. predictably appears the Falwell so - "We love the people of the Bible!" - Mr. Bush Sr. said "No" to Tel-Aviv rather more frequently.

Israeli Dilemma

This afternoon's renewed distant ranged rocket attacks [CNN News via Mobile Web in USA - lead story 08-02-06 1345] re-confirms yesterdays post about Israel's security dilemma.
Adjusted by longer-range rockets rather than guerillas - Israel faces the same problem.

What does Israel want to discontinue the war?

Does Israel need another nation as intervenor for peace talks or an immediate ceasefire?

Lebanon is a hornets nest it seems with more stings than bees. Living afterwards too.

Israel's reality solution is not more war -- but entreating for a ceasefire and peace.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Israel's Promise?? Israel's Trust??

Israel's 1982 redux march into the Lebanese area to the Litani River made opportune by an avoidance of a frontal attack on Syrian forces by Syria's withdrawn forces [Occupation ended last year] is allegedly Israel's war deadline.

By that incursion Israel can limit the range and utility/inutility of the nuisance rockets of Hezbollah. Odd that Israel articulates that ceasefire is possible when Israel has determined that the causes of war have diminished. This would include removing hostile forces by pursuit and defensive line establishment to avert Israeli territorial targeting range.

In a Utopianesque easy-way for Bush allies, if the Israeli venture suceeded, then a fantasy of security would become reality, and the UN would pay for and produce a multinational force to relieve Israel's miitary expedition of her gained ground positions, her occupation of Southern Lebanon.

Wrong!! The United Nations will pursue a ceasefire and Israel will face Baraek's dilemma ; a unilateral withdrawal and no UN-MNF. Israel can stuff it basically, and eat the contemptuous return of bloody hands in a Court of Equity. -- World Opinion, and a busy disinterested over-encumbered UN will tell it so.

Result: Israel may stop at the Litani River -- and subsist defensively for the next few years with an expensive occupation, drawn and stretched by Hezbollah guerilla warfare. This is why this blogger believes that Israel will not stop politically -- and must be stopped militarily - internationally by a UN force or command - which instantly returns the terriory to Lebanon and enforces a negotiated continuing ceasefire for Hezbollah and Israel. (No contradiction -- Israel unilaterally or instantly stops now or forfeits its buffer.)

Save where Blair legend seekers push a peace maker's hat-trick option [he is still very short of a threeper for the same reasons in Ireland & Ulster] -- a regional UN Peace Conference will be delayed two or more years.

Israel will probably cross the Litani River -- be overdrawn with its miitary and make more airstrikes; will attempt to imitate the US and its Iraqi coalition; and be fed a manpower munitions and money draining Guerilla War.

As in all Israeli trigger happy impromptus -- this one is as equally well thought out --the whole longterm show! Never a look forward.

Israel and its allies will not have the money nor the fuels to continue -- but Lebanon - her whole country - will suffer the proud indignity of a resisted occupation and the population and property damage.

Israel has been sucked in .. . and will protect much of its now more distant home territory but leave its forces in range of errant Katyusha and other rockets; and guerilla constancy in war. 'Search & Destroy' will destroy Israel's 'zeitgeist' & 'kriegeist'. It will not dissolve nor defeat the Israeli perceived threat. Israel must learn that PEACE can make Peace - this is Israel's third lesson from Lebanon.

Because Beirut and other parts of Lebanon may be regarded as retreat and supply points -- Israel will cross the Latani and make attacks at will by commando foray and and air attack. Only an enforced ceasefire or counter-force will stop them.

Only a power contemptuous of the United Nations - Israel, joined with the 'boy' in the American Presidency would concur on this course of action.

Let's see if the Briton-Account Executive at Number 10 - trying to keep the American account -- will break off, and save his status, history, and restore his integrity.

End result --Israel will withdraw undignifiedly -- but it will cost Lebanon two or more years of Bakaa Valley et al guerilla resistance war; and will cost Israel another de-natured generation.

Monday, July 31, 2006

Mechanics of a Ceasefire

Mechanics of a Ceasefire

Israel just announced yesterday (July 31) and re-neged a 48 hour aerial attack ceasefire. Under the laws of war a ceasefire when negotiated -- as a truce- - cannot be used for miltary advantage (other then as a respite) - -in the classic form: to fire on combatants or non-combantats waiving a flag of truce is a war crime.

Israel's aerial curteillage was unilateral. Unfortunately, Israel curtailed it when a tank was attacked by Lebanese [Hezbollah are referenced as Lebanese as well here] and the aerial ceasefire ended.

It was a small start -- and ceasefires can begin with such military steps ; eventually reaching a status quo ante-bellum. Air attacks can cease; joined by cessations of sea attacks and blockades; major reliefs can begin for civilians; ground attacks can be localized and reduced; then halted.

Israel! - for peace -- just to do it.

Instead with Anglo-American encouragaement -imputed by inaction & arms supply - Israel has hypothesized a safer ploy of attacking and attaining ground -- which she intends to deliver in relief to a United Nations peace-keeping force. The Anglo-American wait (despite Tony Blair's recent call for a UN ceasefire resolution [move one for Gods sake British!!] -- may well be collusive with Israel's approach. As Israelis know - the ground taken and yielded is never Israeli territory.

Only a peacetime investigation can determine this .. and political heads will roll if true.

Lastly, as moralists and honest analysts will note -- over-reactivity and militarism start wars, not border skirmishes. Due to the itchy Israeli trigger finger - - the DMZ -- and a no-fly zone must lie equilaterally across the Israeli-Lebanon border.

Syria is again commended for her restraint-and refuguees magnanimity. It would be a shallow tactic to bait her into war rather than improve relations by diplomacy.

CEASEFIRE to save lives .. diplomacy would follow to keep a peace.

A CEASEFIRE is an ARMISTICE -- not a diplomatic political peace.

Reading the Israeli position as favorable to the Republican party in Congress or President Bush in the fall's American elections would be de wrong at this time. Most committed voters are educated and see the war-course as wrong -- and Bush doesn't need the saddle of the Israeli war and its camp with the unresolved Iraqi re-construction. Voter sympathies are with killed and injured Lebanese and the Lebanese nation --as well as with the war-decieved Israeli voting electorate.

---- about this blogger -- my profile is posted here at the blog -- my background includes an undergraduate and graduate education in international relations as well as a degree in law.

Role of An American Presidency Against an Israeli War

Role of An American Presidency Against an Israeli War

Assuming Israel and the USA are independent nations; with governments not bent by political blackmail, bribery or other corruption -- it is normal to expect a disagreement on Israeli & American policy in the Near East on peace & war issues.

Israel cannot be unilaterally be backed by the USA - whatever her course.

What can an American President do if Israel goes to war?

- Object first of all -- and advocate peace as a preference; condemn militarism.
-Then if not immediately persuasive, the American Government must raise its persusasion ante:

- Call the Prime Minister of Israel and object and insist on a cessation of hositilities -- a ceasefire
- If refused -- publicize the calls to the Israeli Prime Minister to press and public - release their content
- Reduce communications to the Ambassadorial level -- bawl out the Israeli Ambassador with publicity of the event.
- Commence a full ceasefire resolution process in the UN Security Council
- End all armaments shipments to Israel -- and do not reinforce any war of aggression with replacements of arms or allocation of any military assistance to Israel or aggressor belligerents
- Via the UN & NATO and other nations in coalition to effect a ceasefire -- publicize and share all military intelligence about Israeli military actions -capacities & options
- Eliminate Israel from the USA and other nations GPS satellite usage.
-Choke all Israeli fuel imports
-Apply economic sanctions - including a trade embargo against Israel & belligerents - particularly BAR direct airflights from Israel to the USA.
-Freeze Israeli assets in the USA and other belligerents as necessary- and join an international assets freeze
- Recall the US Ambassador from Israel and reduce relations to the charg� level -- expelling the Israeli Ambassador
- Inform world opinion and Israel of the USA's intentions to seek damages & reparations for the aggressor-injured party
- Commence USA UN participation as a ready combat-capable party to ENFORCE & EFFECT A UN ORDERED CEASEFIRE
- Secure a peace conferecnce as soon as possible after the enforced ceasefire


---MercyCorps Link above referenced b the CNN Larry King SHow (no connections with this blog)