Israel's Promise?? Israel's Trust??
Israel's 1982 redux march into the Lebanese area to the Litani River made opportune by an avoidance of a frontal attack on Syrian forces by Syria's withdrawn forces [Occupation ended last year] is allegedly Israel's war deadline.
By that incursion Israel can limit the range and utility/inutility of the nuisance rockets of Hezbollah. Odd that Israel articulates that ceasefire is possible when Israel has determined that the causes of war have diminished. This would include removing hostile forces by pursuit and defensive line establishment to avert Israeli territorial targeting range.
In a Utopianesque easy-way for Bush allies, if the Israeli venture suceeded, then a fantasy of security would become reality, and the UN would pay for and produce a multinational force to relieve Israel's miitary expedition of her gained ground positions, her occupation of Southern Lebanon.
Wrong!! The United Nations will pursue a ceasefire and Israel will face Baraek's dilemma ; a unilateral withdrawal and no UN-MNF. Israel can stuff it basically, and eat the contemptuous return of bloody hands in a Court of Equity. -- World Opinion, and a busy disinterested over-encumbered UN will tell it so.
Result: Israel may stop at the Litani River -- and subsist defensively for the next few years with an expensive occupation, drawn and stretched by Hezbollah guerilla warfare. This is why this blogger believes that Israel will not stop politically -- and must be stopped militarily - internationally by a UN force or command - which instantly returns the terriory to Lebanon and enforces a negotiated continuing ceasefire for Hezbollah and Israel. (No contradiction -- Israel unilaterally or instantly stops now or forfeits its buffer.)
Save where Blair legend seekers push a peace maker's hat-trick option [he is still very short of a threeper for the same reasons in Ireland & Ulster] -- a regional UN Peace Conference will be delayed two or more years.
Israel will probably cross the Litani River -- be overdrawn with its miitary and make more airstrikes; will attempt to imitate the US and its Iraqi coalition; and be fed a manpower munitions and money draining Guerilla War.
As in all Israeli trigger happy impromptus -- this one is as equally well thought out --the whole longterm show! Never a look forward.
Israel and its allies will not have the money nor the fuels to continue -- but Lebanon - her whole country - will suffer the proud indignity of a resisted occupation and the population and property damage.
Israel has been sucked in .. . and will protect much of its now more distant home territory but leave its forces in range of errant Katyusha and other rockets; and guerilla constancy in war. 'Search & Destroy' will destroy Israel's 'zeitgeist' & 'kriegeist'. It will not dissolve nor defeat the Israeli perceived threat. Israel must learn that PEACE can make Peace - this is Israel's third lesson from Lebanon.
Because Beirut and other parts of Lebanon may be regarded as retreat and supply points -- Israel will cross the Latani and make attacks at will by commando foray and and air attack. Only an enforced ceasefire or counter-force will stop them.
Only a power contemptuous of the United Nations - Israel, joined with the 'boy' in the American Presidency would concur on this course of action.
Let's see if the Briton-Account Executive at Number 10 - trying to keep the American account -- will break off, and save his status, history, and restore his integrity.
End result --Israel will withdraw undignifiedly -- but it will cost Lebanon two or more years of Bakaa Valley et al guerilla resistance war; and will cost Israel another de-natured generation.
By that incursion Israel can limit the range and utility/inutility of the nuisance rockets of Hezbollah. Odd that Israel articulates that ceasefire is possible when Israel has determined that the causes of war have diminished. This would include removing hostile forces by pursuit and defensive line establishment to avert Israeli territorial targeting range.
In a Utopianesque easy-way for Bush allies, if the Israeli venture suceeded, then a fantasy of security would become reality, and the UN would pay for and produce a multinational force to relieve Israel's miitary expedition of her gained ground positions, her occupation of Southern Lebanon.
Wrong!! The United Nations will pursue a ceasefire and Israel will face Baraek's dilemma ; a unilateral withdrawal and no UN-MNF. Israel can stuff it basically, and eat the contemptuous return of bloody hands in a Court of Equity. -- World Opinion, and a busy disinterested over-encumbered UN will tell it so.
Result: Israel may stop at the Litani River -- and subsist defensively for the next few years with an expensive occupation, drawn and stretched by Hezbollah guerilla warfare. This is why this blogger believes that Israel will not stop politically -- and must be stopped militarily - internationally by a UN force or command - which instantly returns the terriory to Lebanon and enforces a negotiated continuing ceasefire for Hezbollah and Israel. (No contradiction -- Israel unilaterally or instantly stops now or forfeits its buffer.)
Save where Blair legend seekers push a peace maker's hat-trick option [he is still very short of a threeper for the same reasons in Ireland & Ulster] -- a regional UN Peace Conference will be delayed two or more years.
Israel will probably cross the Litani River -- be overdrawn with its miitary and make more airstrikes; will attempt to imitate the US and its Iraqi coalition; and be fed a manpower munitions and money draining Guerilla War.
As in all Israeli trigger happy impromptus -- this one is as equally well thought out --the whole longterm show! Never a look forward.
Israel and its allies will not have the money nor the fuels to continue -- but Lebanon - her whole country - will suffer the proud indignity of a resisted occupation and the population and property damage.
Israel has been sucked in .. . and will protect much of its now more distant home territory but leave its forces in range of errant Katyusha and other rockets; and guerilla constancy in war. 'Search & Destroy' will destroy Israel's 'zeitgeist' & 'kriegeist'. It will not dissolve nor defeat the Israeli perceived threat. Israel must learn that PEACE can make Peace - this is Israel's third lesson from Lebanon.
Because Beirut and other parts of Lebanon may be regarded as retreat and supply points -- Israel will cross the Latani and make attacks at will by commando foray and and air attack. Only an enforced ceasefire or counter-force will stop them.
Only a power contemptuous of the United Nations - Israel, joined with the 'boy' in the American Presidency would concur on this course of action.
Let's see if the Briton-Account Executive at Number 10 - trying to keep the American account -- will break off, and save his status, history, and restore his integrity.
End result --Israel will withdraw undignifiedly -- but it will cost Lebanon two or more years of Bakaa Valley et al guerilla resistance war; and will cost Israel another de-natured generation.
posted by scotty of course at 10:26 PM
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